AVAV Stock Is Down 58%. What History Says Now

AeroVironment Has Fallen 58% in 199 Days. What History Says.

Current Drawdown Status and Severity Zone

As of June 12, 2026, AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) remains deep in the red zone with a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 9.1, representing a -58.4% decline from its all-time high. The stock closed at $170.58, marking 199 consecutive days in drawdown since peaking at $409.83. This current position represents a continued stay in the red zone, indicating that the asset has not yet begun a meaningful recovery phase.

Our data shows that the stock has spent more than six months translating downward from its peak. This persistence in the red zone highlights the ongoing selling pressure that has characterized the asset's trading pattern over the last 199 days.

Understanding the Red Zone and the Current Severity Score™

The red zone represents the most severe category in our tracking framework, reserved for drawdowns that deviate significantly from an asset's normal trading behavior. As of June 12, 2026, the Drawdown Severity Score™ for AVAV stands at 9.1 out of 10.0, which classifies this event as a "Very Large" drawdown. This high severity score indicates that the current decline is highly unusual when compared to the historical patterns of this specific asset.

Over the historical lifetime of AVAV, we have tracked a total of 62 drawdown events. The average max drawdown across all of these historical events is -11.1%. The current drawdown of -58.4% is more than five times deeper than the average historical decline. This highlights the extreme nature of the current sell-off and explains why the asset remains locked in the red zone.

A high Drawdown Severity Score™ suggests that the asset has broken past typical support levels and entered a regime of heightened volatility. In past cycles, when an asset's severity score reached this level, the path to recovery required a fundamental shift in trading volume and price stability.

Analyzing the Duration of the Current Drawdown

The current drawdown has persisted for 199 days as of June 12, 2026. For context, the average drawdown duration across all 62 historical events for AVAV is 108 days. The current event has already lasted nearly twice as long as the historical average, demonstrating that this is not a typical short-term pullback.

When an asset enters a deep drawdown, the recovery timeline typically extends far beyond the average duration of minor pullbacks. The current 199-day duration reflects a prolonged period of downward pressure, during which the asset has struggled to establish a definitive upward trend. Our data shows that once an asset's drawdown depth exceeds 50%, the time required to recover historically extends into years rather than months.

The duration of a drawdown is a critical risk metric because it measures the opportunity cost for capital tied up in the asset. For 199 days, investors who acquired shares near the peak have experienced a continuous decline without a sustained rebound. Understanding how long these periods typically last can help investors frame realistic expectations for recovery.

Historical Comparisons: How Prior 50% Drops Evolved

To understand what might happen next, we must look at how AVAV has behaved during similar historical drawdowns. Our historical database shows that AVAV has dropped by 50% or more from its peak exactly 5 times in the past. These 5 events represent the most severe corrections in the asset's history.

The average duration of these 5 comparable drops is 1041 days. This historical average duration includes both the time spent falling from the peak to the trough and the time spent recovering back to the previous all-time high. Comparing the current 199-day duration to this 1041-day historical average suggests that the current event may still have a significant timeline left to play out before a full recovery is achieved.

The table below outlines how the current drawdown compares to the historical averages for AVAV:

This historical data shows that deep drawdowns are rare but highly prolonged events for this stock. The 5 previous occurrences that exceeded the 50% threshold eventually recovered, but they required an average of nearly three years to do so. With the current drawdown at 199 days, the asset is still in the early stages compared to the historical average duration of 1041 days for similar deep-drawdown events.

Risk Framing: The Mathematical Asymmetry of Deep Drawdowns

One of the most critical concepts for investors dealing with deep drawdowns is the mathematical asymmetry of recovery. When a stock declines by a certain percentage, the gain required to return to the previous peak is always larger than the percentage lost. This gap grows exponentially as the drawdown deepens, making recovery increasingly difficult.

To illustrate this asymmetry, we can look at the specific numbers for AVAV as of June 12, 2026:

• A 10% drawdown requires an 11.1% gain to break even.
• A 30% drawdown requires a 42.9% gain to break even.
• A 50% drawdown requires a 100.0% gain to break even.
• The current -58.4% drawdown requires a 140.3% gain to return to the all-time high of $409.83.

This mathematical reality explains why the Drawdown Severity Score™ rises so sharply once a drawdown crosses the 50% threshold. The asset must more than double in value from its current price of $170.58 just to reach its former peak. This massive hurdle is why historical recoveries from this depth have taken an average of 1041 days.

Methodological Limits and Data Scope

We emphasize that our analysis of AVAV is strictly data-driven and based entirely on historical price action and drawdown metrics. This analysis does not take into account fundamental business developments, earnings reports, macroeconomic trends, or broader market sentiment. We do not speculate on the external factors that may have driven the stock from its peak of $409.83 to its current price of $170.58.

By focusing purely on the quantitative history of the asset's drawdowns, we provide an objective baseline for assessing risk. Historical performance does not guarantee future results, but it does offer critical context on how the stock has behaved under similar mathematical conditions in the past. Investors can use these historical benchmarks to frame their expectations regarding recovery timelines and risk exposure.

Key Price Levels and Severity Thresholds to Watch

For AVAV to begin improving its technical posture and eventually transition out of the red zone, it must reclaim key price levels. Each level corresponds to a specific reduction in the drawdown percentage, which would subsequently lower the severity score.

The following targets represent the critical milestones on the path to recovery:

• The -50% Drawdown Level ($204.92): Reclaiming this price would reduce the drawdown to exactly -50.0%. This is the lower bound of the comparable deep-drawdown historical group.
• The -40% Drawdown Level ($245.90): Reaching this price would represent a significant recovery from the trough, likely triggering a reduction in the Drawdown Severity Score™ out of the "Very Large" category.
• The -30% Drawdown Level ($286.88): Reclaiming this level would bring the asset closer to its historical trading norms.
• The -20% Drawdown Level ($327.86): A recovery to this price would signify that the asset has retraced more than half of its total decline from the peak.
• The All-Time High ($409.83): To fully recover and exit the drawdown entirely, the price must rise by 140.3% from the current price of $170.58.

As of June 12, 2026, the stock remains far from these critical recovery targets. The severity score of 9.1 will remain elevated in the red zone until the asset can sustain a move back toward these higher price thresholds. We will continue to track these metrics as the drawdown event progresses.