ARES Is Down 26% in 550 Days. What History Says Now

ARES Is Down 26% in 550 Days. Here is What History Says

Ares Management Corporation (ARES) is down 26% from its all-time high as of August 14, 2026, and has been falling for approximately 550 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 5.2, placing it in the red zone after crossing over from the yellow zone. In 4 comparable prior drops of this depth, the stock took an average of 382 days to recover.

Ares Management Enters the Red Zone

Our data shows that as of August 14, 2026, Ares Management Corporation has crossed a major risk threshold. The stock closed at $144.02, which represents a 25.8% decline from its all-time high of $194.14. This shift has pushed the stock out of the moderate yellow zone and into the high-severity red zone.

The transition to the red zone indicates that the current price decline has exceeded typical historical retracements. For an asset that has historically shown resilience during market pullbacks, this extended slide represents a significant departure from its established patterns. The duration of this decline has now reached 547 days, making it one of the most prolonged pullbacks in the asset's history.

To put this in perspective, we can evaluate how this current decline compares to the overall historical database for this stock. Ares Management Corporation has experienced 123 distinct drawdown events over its trading history. The vast majority of these pullbacks were shallow and resolved quickly, which highlights the unusual nature of the current 547-day period.

Understanding the 5.2 Drawdown Severity Score™

Our proprietary Drawdown Severity Score™ is designed to measure the intensity of an asset's decline by combining depth, duration, and historical frequency into a single metric. The current score of 5.2 places Ares Management Corporation in the red zone, which represents "Strong" drawdown severity. This score reflects both the depth of the 25.8% drop and the compounding risk of a decline that has lasted for 547 days.

When we look at the historical record of 123 drawdown events, the average maximum drawdown for this stock is only -4.9%. Furthermore, the average duration of all historical drawdowns is just 30 days. The current drawdown is 5.27 times deeper than the historical average and has lasted 18.23 times longer than the average drawdown duration.

The extreme divergence between the current metrics and the historical averages highlights why the Drawdown Severity Score™ has reached 5.2. A typical pullback for this stock is a brief, single-digit percentage dip that resolves within a month. The current scenario represents a multi-quarter, double-digit percentage decline that has fundamentally altered the stock's medium-term risk profile.

Historical Analysis of 25% Drawdowns

To understand what might happen next, we must look at how the stock has behaved during similar historical events. Our data shows that Ares Management Corporation has dropped 25% or more from an all-time high only 4 times in its history. This small number of occurrences indicates that a decline of this magnitude is a relatively rare event for this asset.

In those 4 prior instances, the average duration of the drawdown was 382 days. The current drawdown has already lasted 547 days, which is 165 days longer than the historical average for comparable drops. This means the current decline is proving to be far more stubborn and protracted than the previous deep drawdowns experienced by the stock.

When analyzing these historical averages, we must note a critical statistical caveat: the small sample size of only 4 comparable events. Because there are so few historical occurrences of a 25% drawdown for this stock, the average duration of 382 days should be interpreted with caution. A single outlier event in the historical data can heavily influence this average, meaning that past recoveries may not provide a perfect blueprint for the current cycle.

Valuation Contrast and Historical Percentiles

To provide historical context, we look at how the price drawdown aligns with historical valuation multiples as of 2026-08-15. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 5.1, placing it in the 77th percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2014-05-02, which is above its historical median of 3.0. Conversely, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio sits at 28.3, placing it in the 17th percentile of its own daily EV-to-EBITDA record since 2016-08-09, which is below its historical median of 40.9. This divergence shows that while the asset's sales-based multiple remains elevated relative to its historical range, its earnings-based multiple is positioned significantly lower within its own past record.

Technical Limitations of Price-Based Analysis

This drawdown analysis relies strictly on historical price, duration, and severity data. We do not incorporate external market narratives, macroeconomic indicators, corporate earnings reports, or fundamental analyst ratings into this evaluation. By focusing purely on the mathematical realities of the price action, we provide an objective look at where the stock sits relative to its own historical footprint.

Investors should be aware that quantitative drawdown analysis is backward-looking. While historical patterns show how the stock has recovered from similar 25% declines in the past, they cannot predict future price movements with absolute certainty. Changes in market structure, industry dynamics, or corporate fundamentals may cause the current drawdown to behave differently than the 4 historical precedents.

Key Thresholds and Metrics to Watch

As Ares Management Corporation remains in the red zone, there are several key price levels and duration markers that we are monitoring. These thresholds will determine whether the Drawdown Severity Score™ begins to recover or if the risk profile intensifies further.

First, we can calculate the exact price levels required to reach specific drawdown milestones:

• A recovery to a 20% drawdown requires a price of $155.31.
• A recovery to a 15% drawdown requires a price of $165.02.
• A deepening of the drawdown to 30% would occur at a price of $135.90.
• A deepening of the drawdown to 35% would occur at a price of $126.19.

Second, the duration of 547 days is already well beyond the historical average of 382 days for comparable drops. If the drawdown continues without a significant price recovery, the extended duration will keep upward pressure on the severity score. A sustained move back toward the yellow zone would require a steady reduction in the drawdown depth, which would subsequently lower the severity score below the red zone threshold.

We will continue to track these metrics as the price action develops. Investors can use these objective data points and historical benchmarks to contextualize the ongoing price movement of Ares Management Corporation within its broader historical framework.