AppLovin Is Down 32%. What History Says About This Drop

AppLovin's 99-Day Drawdown: What History Says About a 31% Drop

As of May 16, 2026, AppLovin Corporation (APP) has moved from the red zone to the yellow zone as its Drawdown Severity Score™ improved to 4.8. The stock currently sits at a price of $501.00, representing a drawdown of -31.7% from its all-time high of $733.60.

From Red to Yellow: The Path of the Current Drawdown

The current decline has lasted 99 days as of May 16, 2026. During this period, the Drawdown Severity Score™ reached the red zone, indicating a drawdown event that significantly exceeded the stock's typical volatility profile. Our data shows that the average max drawdown for AppLovin Corporation (APP) is -12.7%, making this current -31.7% contraction more than double its historical average.

The movement into the yellow zone signifies a reduction in immediate severity, though the stock remains in a "Significant" drawdown state. While the price has stabilized enough to exit the highest risk category, it has not yet returned to the green zone where most of its historical price action resides.

Historical Context of 30% Drawdowns

In the history of AppLovin Corporation (APP), our data identifies a total of 23 drawdown events. Most of these pullbacks are short-lived, with an average duration of 67 days. However, the current 99-day stretch has already exceeded that average by more than a month.

When looking specifically at severe pullbacks, our data shows that AppLovin Corporation (APP) has dropped 30% or more from a peak only 3 times in its history. This is a small sample size, and investors should note this caveat when evaluating historical averages. For these three comparable events, the average duration was 453 days.

The current 99-day duration is significantly shorter than the 453-day average seen in previous 30% drops. This suggests that while the severity has improved from the red zone to the yellow zone, the stock is still in the early stages of what has historically been a much longer recovery process for drawdowns of this magnitude.

Analyzing the Drawdown Severity Score™

The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 4.8 provides a standardized way to look at this -31.7% drop relative to the stock's entire trading history. Because we use exact numbers from our proprietary data, we can see that the stock is currently 31.7% below its $733.60 peak.

A severity score in the yellow zone typically indicates that the asset is no longer in a free-fall state but has not yet demonstrated the price appreciation necessary to reclaim its previous highs. In the case of AppLovin Corporation (APP), the gap between the current price of $501.00 and the all-time high remains over $232.00 per share.

Data Limits and Analysis Scope

This analysis relies exclusively on verified price, drawdown, severity, duration, and historical comparison data as of May 16, 2026. Our data-only approach focuses on the mathematical reality of the stock's price movement rather than external narratives or market sentiment.

We do not incorporate earnings data, analyst ratings, or broader market conditions into this specific drawdown assessment. This report is framed entirely around the Drawdown Severity Score™ and the historical behavior of the stock during its 23 recorded drawdown events.

Severity Thresholds to Monitor

For AppLovin Corporation (APP) to move back toward a "Normal" severity level in the green zone, the drawdown would likely need to retract toward its historical average of -12.7%. Conversely, a return to the red zone would be triggered if the Drawdown Severity Score™ exceeds the 5.0 threshold, which often occurs if the price breaks below current support levels or if the duration of the drawdown extends significantly without price improvement.

At the current price of $501.00, the stock remains in a significant recovery phase. We will continue to monitor the Drawdown Severity Score™ to see if the transition from the red zone to the yellow zone is the beginning of a sustained recovery or a temporary pause in a longer-term drawdown.