AON Is Down 20% After 388 Days. What History Says Now.

Aon plc Just Reclaimed the Yellow Zone. What History Says About the 388-Day Drawdown.

Aon plc (AON) has exited the red zone for the first time in several months as of May 18, 2026. While the stock remains in a drawdown of 19.9% from its all-time high of $407.61, the Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 4.6. This movement places the stock in the yellow zone, a classification we use for significant but stabilizing pullbacks.

The Current State of the AON Drawdown

As of May 18, 2026, the current price of $326.57 reflects a recovery from deeper lows, yet the stock remains nearly 20% below its peak. This specific drawdown has persisted for 388 days. Our data shows that this duration is significantly longer than the historical average for this asset.

Historically, Aon plc (AON) experiences an average drawdown duration of just 47 days. The current 388-day stretch represents a duration nearly eight times longer than the typical recovery cycle seen across the 287 historical drawdown events we have recorded. The transition from the red zone to the yellow zone suggests a shift in momentum, though the stock must still climb significantly to reach its previous high of $407.61.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ of 4.6 indicates that while the immediate "red zone" risk has abated, the stock is still experiencing a drawdown that is much more severe than its historical norm. The average maximum drawdown for this ticker is -3.6%. At -19.9%, the current decline is more than five times the magnitude of a standard historical pullback for the stock.

Historical Context and Comparable Events

Our data allows us to compare the current 19.9% decline against the entire price history of the asset. Since its inception, Aon plc (AON) has dropped by 30% or more only 5 times. While the current drawdown has not yet reached that 30% threshold, it has entered the tier of "significant" events that define the tail end of the stock's risk distribution.

When Aon plc (AON) experiences drops of a comparable scale to those 30% thresholds, the recovery process is often prolonged. Our data shows that for those 5 major historical events, the average duration was 1202 days. This historical context is vital for understanding the current 388-day timeframe. While 388 days feels long compared to the 47-day average, it is still relatively early in the cycle when compared to the 1202-day average seen during the stock's most severe historical corrections.

The move into the yellow zone is a data-driven signal that the severity score is no longer at its maximum levels. In past cycles, a transition out of the red zone has served as a marker of stabilizing price action, though it does not guarantee an immediate return to all-time highs. We monitor these zone changes because they represent a shift in the mathematical risk profile of the stock relative to its own history.

Analyzing the Severity Score Shift

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a proprietary metric we use to normalize risk across different stocks. For Aon plc (AON), a score of 4.6 indicates that the current price action is still an outlier. In a typical year, the stock spends most of its time with a much lower severity score, reflecting the fact that its average drawdown is only -3.6%.

The previous red zone status indicated that the stock was in the bottom decile of its historical performance. The improvement to a 4.6 severity score means that the stock is beginning to move back toward the middle of its historical distribution, even though the total drawdown remains at 19.9%. We look at these shifts to identify when a stock is no longer "breaking" its historical price patterns and is instead starting to follow a more standard recovery path.

The data shows that 287 total drawdown events have occurred in the history of the ticker. The vast majority of these are shallow and brief. The current event is one of the few that has lasted longer than a calendar year. Only by looking at the Drawdown Severity Score™ can we see that the current -19.9% level is starting to show signs of stabilization compared to the peak severity observed earlier in this 388-day period.

Data Parameters and Limitations

This analysis is based strictly on the price and drawdown history of Aon plc (AON) as of May 18, 2026. Our models do not incorporate external factors, market sentiment, or corporate developments. We focus exclusively on the mathematical reality of the stock's price relative to its all-time high and its historical behavior during previous sell-offs.

The Drawdown Severity Score™ is a trailing indicator of risk. It tells us how the current decline compares to the 287 previous declines we have tracked for this specific asset. It does not predict future price movements, but it does provide a framework for understanding whether a 19.9% drop is "normal" for this stock. For Aon plc (AON), the data confirms that a 19.9% drop is not normal: it is a significant deviation from the -3.6% average.

By removing outside narrative and focusing on the exact numbers, we can see that the stock is currently in a state of extended recovery. The 388 days spent in this drawdown suggest a level of persistence that is rarely seen in this ticker's history, except during its 5 most severe historical events.

What the Data Suggests Moving Forward

To see a further improvement in the Drawdown Severity Score™, the stock would need to continue closing the gap between its current price of $326.57 and its all-time high of $407.61. A move back into the green zone would typically require the drawdown to shrink significantly closer to the historical average of -3.6%.

Conversely, if the drawdown depth were to increase beyond 19.9% or if the price were to remain stagnant for several more months, the Drawdown Severity Score™ could stabilize or even revert toward the red zone. We track the relationship between the depth of the drop and the time spent away from highs to determine these zone changes.

As of May 18, 2026, the primary data point to monitor is the 19.9% drawdown level. Historically, when this stock moves into the yellow zone after a prolonged stay in the red zone, it marks a transition in the risk profile. Investors can use the $407.61 all-time high as the ultimate benchmark for a full recovery, while the current severity score of 4.6 serves as the barometer for intermediate risk stabilization.