Alamo Group Is Down 28%. What History Says About ALG.

Alamo Group Is Down 28% in 337 Days. What History Says.

Alamo Group Inc. (ALG) is now down 28% from its all-time high as of July 16, 2026, having just exited the red zone after 337 days in this drawdown. The Drawdown Severity Score™ has improved to 4.9, placing the stock in the yellow zone. In 12 comparable prior recoveries where the stock dropped 25% or more, ALG took an average of 747 days to recover, indicating that the current recovery timeline is likely only in its middle stages.

The Path Out of Peak Severity

Our data shows that ALG reached its all-time high of $231.18 before entering this current drawdown cycle. As of July 16, 2026, the stock has spent 337 consecutive days below that peak. During this period, the stock crossed deep into the red zone, indicating peak drawdown severity.

With the current price at $165.71, the drawdown stands at -28.3%. The transition from the red zone to the yellow zone represents a shift in risk profile, though the stock remains far from its historical peak. This shift suggests that the intense selling pressure has begun to subside, allowing the price to stabilize.

Comparing the Current Decline to Historical Averages

To contextualize the current drawdown, we can compare ALG's current metrics against its complete historical record. Over its trading history, ALG has experienced 134 total drawdown events. The current decline is significantly deeper and longer than the typical pullback for this asset.

The table below outlines how the current drawdown compares to historical averages across all registered events and comparable deep declines.

The average drawdown for ALG lasts just 86 days and reaches a maximum depth of -7.4%. The current 337-day duration is nearly four times longer than the company's historical average. This highlights the unusual severity of the current cycle and underscores why the stock spent a prolonged period in the red zone.

Understanding the Current Yellow Zone Position

The current Drawdown Severity Score™ of 4.9 places ALG in the yellow zone, which our model classifies as "Significant" severity. This score indicates that while the immediate downward momentum has moderated, the risk remains elevated compared to historical norms. The transition indicates a period of consolidation rather than an immediate return to growth.

To move completely out of the yellow zone, the stock must continue to reduce its drawdown. A severity score of 4.9 reflects a transition phase where the asset is no longer experiencing accelerating declines but has not yet established a clear upward trajectory. Our data shows that assets in this zone often experience prolonged periods of sideways trading before a definitive trend emerges.

Historical Recoveries and the 747-Day Benchmark

To understand how this recovery might unfold, we analyze past instances where ALG experienced a drawdown of 25% or greater. Our data shows this has occurred exactly 12 times in the company's history. In those 12 comparable instances, the average duration to resolve the drawdown and reach a new high was 747 days.

Comparing the current duration of 337 days to this historical average suggests that the stock is roughly 45% of the way through its typical recovery cycle. If history serves as a guide, the stock could remain in a drawdown state for several hundred more days before fully reclaiming its all-time high.

Investors should note that a sample size of 12 historical events over the company's entire trading history is relatively small. This limited dataset means past performance serves as a loose historical guide rather than a statistical guarantee of future recovery timelines. Regime shifts in the broader market or structural changes within the company can alter recovery dynamics.

Data Limits and Quantitative Methodology

This drawdown analysis relies strictly on verified historical price and drawdown data as of July 16, 2026. We do not incorporate external market narratives, corporate earnings, analyst projections, or macroeconomic indicators in this evaluation. Our model evaluates risk purely through the lens of historical price action and the proprietary Drawdown Severity Score™.

By focusing solely on these quantitative metrics, we isolate the historical behavior of the stock during periods of recovery. This approach removes emotional bias and speculative narratives, focusing entirely on what the historical price data shows. It provides a standardized framework to compare the current decline against past market cycles.

Severity Thresholds to Watch

For investors monitoring ALG, several key thresholds will dictate whether the stock continues its recovery or slips back into higher severity. A reversal that pushes the drawdown back past -25% would likely trigger a return to a higher Drawdown Severity Score™. This would indicate that the stabilization observed in the yellow zone was temporary.

Conversely, a sustained upward price movement that reduces the drawdown below -20% would signal a transition toward the green zone. We will continue to track these metrics as the drawdown progresses. Monitoring these specific price levels provides a clear, data-driven method for assessing the stock's ongoing recovery.