AGCO Is Down 30%. What History Says About the Recovery

AGCO Is Down 30% in 170 Days. What History Suggests.

AGCO Corporation (AGCO) is down 30% from its all-time high as of August 18, 2026, and has been falling for approximately 170 days. The Drawdown Severity Score™ stands at 5.0, placing it in the red zone after crossing over from the yellow zone. In 10 comparable prior drops of this depth, the stock took an average of 1054 days to recover.

AGCO Crosses Into the Red Zone

Our data shows that AGCO has transitioned from the yellow zone to the red zone, indicating a critical shift in its risk profile. This transition is marked by a Drawdown Severity Score™ of 5.0, which signifies a strong severity level. The stock closed at $98.45 on August 18, 2026, representing a -29.9% drawdown from its all-time high of $140.49.

The transition to the red zone indicates that the current pullback has surpassed typical correction thresholds. While the yellow zone represents moderate pullbacks, entering the red zone at a severity score of 5.0 indicates that the decline has entered a historically severe phase. This transition is defined entirely by price performance relative to the asset's historical peak and the speed of its descent over the last 170 days.

Current Drawdown Metrics as of August 18, 2026

The current price of $98.45 represents a substantial departure from the peak price of $140.49. To understand the mathematical reality of this -29.9% drawdown, we can calculate the recovery requirement. From the current price of $98.45, AGCO must achieve a gain of 42.65% just to return to its previous all-time high.

This recovery requirement highlights the compounding difficulty of deeper drawdowns. While a minor 10% pullback requires an 11.1% gain to recover, a 29.9% drop requires nearly four times that performance. The duration of 170 days also indicates that this is not a brief flash crash, but a sustained multi-month decline.

Historical Drawdown Comparisons

To put the current decline into perspective, we analyze the complete historical record for AGCO. Our database tracks a total of 114 historical drawdown events for this asset. Across all 114 events, the average max drawdown was -8.5%, and the average drawdown duration was 106 days.

Comparing the current drawdown of -29.9% to these historical averages reveals a clear divergence. The current decline is more than three times deeper than the historical average max drawdown. Additionally, the current duration of 170 days is significantly longer than the historical average duration of 106 days.

The data reveals a highly bimodal distribution in AGCO's historical pullbacks. While the vast majority of the 114 drawdown events are shallow and brief, a small subset of severe declines behave entirely differently. Specifically, AGCO has dropped by 25% or more only 10 times in its history.

When the stock breaches this 25% threshold, the recovery timeline lengthens dramatically. The average duration of these 10 comparable drops is 1054 days, which is nearly three years. This historical reality suggests that once AGCO enters this deep drawdown territory, the path back to previous highs has historically been a multi-year process rather than a quick rebound.

Valuation Context and Historical Percentiles

To contextualize this price drawdown, we look at the asset's historical valuation multiples as of 2026-08-17. The Price-to-Sales ratio (P/S) is 0.70, which sits in the 71st percentile of its own daily P/S record since 2006-08-14, indicating it is above its historical median of 0.59. In contrast, the EV-to-EBITDA ratio (EV/EBITDA) is 6.6, placing it in the 31st percentile of its own daily EV/EBITDA history since 2006-08-14, which is within its typical historical range relative to its historical median of 8.3. This shows a divergence where the sales-based multiple remains historically high while the cash-flow-based multiple sits in its lower historical range.

Data Limits and Methodology

Our drawdown analysis is based exclusively on historical price, duration, and severity data. We do not incorporate external qualitative factors, macroeconomic variables, or industry-specific trends. By focusing purely on quantitative price action, we isolate how the asset behaves relative to its own historical boundaries. This methodology ensures that the risk zones and recovery timelines are derived from actual market history rather than subjective forecasts.

What to Watch Moving Forward

Investors tracking AGCO should observe key structural levels to determine if the drawdown is stabilizing. A key metric is whether the drawdown exceeds the -29.9% level, which would push the stock deeper into its historic tail of 25%+ declines. Another critical marker is the duration; at 170 days, the current decline is already well past the overall historical average of 106 days, but still far short of the 1054-day average seen in deep drawdowns.

A shift in the Drawdown Severity Score™ back toward the yellow zone would require a sustained reduction in the drawdown percentage. Any movement in the severity score will reflect changes in the speed and depth of price recovery relative to historical benchmarks. Monitoring these quantitative boundaries provides a framework for evaluating the asset's progress without relying on narrative assumptions.